Ottawa may have to let U.S. president-elect Donald Trump act as the “senior partner” in the Canada-U.S. relationship, even if that makes Canadians “bristle,” a prominent Republican critic of the incoming president says.
Jeff Timmer, a longtime Republican official and strategist in Michigan who helped lead efforts aimed at defeating Trump in the past two U.S. elections, says the Canadian government will need to treat Trump as “the guy in charge” to ensure Canada’s interests are safeguarded during what’s expected to be a protectionist U.S. administration.
“I think Donald Trump is an easy guy to read and an easy guy to play poker with,” he told Mercedes Stephenson in an interview that aired Sunday on The West Block. “You have to treat him in a way that he likes to be treated.
“I know that it’s not fair to put this on the Canadians, but Donald Trump likes to see the United States as the senior partner in the partnership between the two nations. … It might cause Canadians to bristle, but it might help achieve their ends.”
Canada is expected to face outsized pressures on cross-border trade, immigration and defence spending under a Trump presidency. The federal government says Canada is ready to handle any impacts to those and other files, having prepared for months for the possibility of Trump’s return to the White House.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland on Friday expressed confidence that her government’s alignment with the U.S. on Chinese tariffs puts Canada on “firm foundation” in upcoming trade negotiations.
She said past trade disputes under the first Trump administration showed neither country benefits from tariffs on cross-border goods, which could ensure Canada is exempted from Trump’s promised blanket tariffs on foreign imports in his next term.
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Timmer said there’s “no question that Trump is going to continue to hold NATO’s allies feet to the fire” on meeting their commitment of spending at least two per cent of GDP on defence.
That will likely be a weak spot for Canada, which has said it won’t reach the target until 2032, despite fresh doubts on the government’s plan to get there.
But Timmer said Canada needs to address immigration concerns before Trump even takes office in January, given global challenges that are driving increased migration to North America.
“I think every country in North America — Canada, the United States and Mexico — all need to be very concerned with an influx of immigrants from their southern borders,” he said.
During this year’s election, Timmer served as campaign manager and chief operations officer of The Lincoln Project, a group of former Republican strategists bent on ensuring Trump’s defeat. It was among several Republican groups that united with former GOP lawmakers and members of Trump’s first administration who supported U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris.
Timmer said although Trump’s win itself wasn’t surprising, the size of his victory was “a shock to the system.” Trump won the popular vote for the first time in three presidential elections he ran in, and exit polls suggest he ate into nearly every traditional Democratic bloc, particularly Black and Hispanic men, while improving his support among younger and non-college-educated voters.
Asked why he thought Trump won so handily, Timmer pointed to a phrase attributed to James Carville, a strategist in Bill Clinton’s successful first presidential campaign, in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
“I think the economy gave older, more well-to-do white voters the cover that they needed to kind of mask their xenophobia and sexism, because they still do play a role, especially with older white voters,” Timmer said.
“But there are folks who aren’t doing well, even though the economy overall is. And those are the younger Latino men, younger Black men and younger white voters who are coming out of college (or) leaving high school and starting their careers, and are finding the the economic circumstances more difficult than previous generations have faced.”
Timmer said a second Trump administration in general will likely operate similarly to his first, with “a lot of chaos, a lot of misdirection, a lot of stumbles, a lot of overplaying his hand.”
How far Trump will go in executing his vision — including a planned mass deportation, deregulations across industries, and an overhauling of government structures — depends on how much Republicans will control Congress, he added.
Republicans claimed control of the U.S. Senate in the election, but results in the U.S. House — where Republicans have a narrow majority — will take more time to determine as counting of ballots continues in close races.
“There’s still a chance that the Democrats could take control, which would have a big effect on what Trump is able to do and what the Republicans are able to do,” Timmer said.
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