Ontarians are waking up to an extremely familiar political landscape as Progressive Conservative Party Leader Doug Ford is projected to secure a third successive majority government, with the NDP in opposition and the Liberals in third place.
On Thursday night, polls closed on a quiet winter election campaign that had seen Ford polling well ahead of his rivals in the snap election he called at the end of January. The Progressive Conservatives organized a clear frontrunner campaign, with Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie and NDP Leader Marit Stiles seemingly in competition for second place.
When results rolled in, Ford secured the historic third majority he wanted but failed to win the super-majority he said he hoped for.
Before calling the election, Ford said he wanted “the largest mandate in Ontario’s history to move this province forward.”
Results on election night, however, which will need to be formally ratified, painted a picture of the Ontario legislature almost identical to the one Ford dissolved to call an early election — which cost roughly $189 million.
As the clocks turned past midnight and into Friday morning, the PCs were elected or leading in 80 seats, the NDP was on 27, the Liberals had 14 and the Greens had two. At dissolution, the Progressive Conservatives were at 79, the NDP at 28, the Liberals at nine and the Greens at two, with several independents also in the chamber.
Nonetheless, despite not hitting the heights he had called for before the campaign, Ford secured the first consecutive triple majority since the 1950s and saw the big hitters in his party come through a potentially unpredictable campaign unscathed. A number of the major figures in Ford’s pre-election cabinet — Health Minister Sylvia Jones, Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria and Labour Minister David Piccini among them — were returned to the legislature and few seats changed hands.
“Together we have made history,” Ford told reporters at his victory rally in Toronto. “Together we have secured a strong, historic third majority mandate — a mandate to protect Ontario. From the bottom of my heart, I thank you for being here, for sharing this incredible moment with me.”
The Progressive Conservative leader thanked Stiles, Crombie and Schreiner for taking part in an election campaign where barbs were traded at times.
“We can disagree on policy but there’s no question, no question at all, each one of them loves our province and each one of them loves Canada, the greatest country on earth,” he said.”Democracy only works if people are willing to step up and step forward. Our province is stronger because of your decision to do so.”
Across the city, Stiles stood in front of supporters at her own Toronto event and congratulated Ford on his victory.
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“I congratulate tonight, Premier Ford, on his victory. I really do want to offer him any possible help that we can provide in the face of the threat of Donald Trump,” she said. “The threat is real, and I deeply believe that we can overcome it with a strong team Ontario and a strong team Canada approach.”
While she suggested the NDP could work with the PCs on tariffs, she also pledged to be a firm opposition leader.
“Our job is to hold this government to account, and that is the job that we are going to do with our usual fight and our determination but also with love, hope and optimism,” Stiles said.
“You know what? In another few years, we are going to face a rematch, and I’m there for it my friends.”
In Mississauga, for the third election in a row, the mood in the Liberal camp was sombre.
The party increased its seat count and crossed the threshold to official party status, pulling in 30 per cent of the popular vote. Crombie herself, however, failed to win a seat in the city where she was mayor for almost a decade.
Crombie was projected to lose to her Progressive Conservative rival Silvia Gualtieri in Mississauga East—Cooksville on Thursday night, leaving her leading the Liberals from outside of Queen’s Park. Gualtieri is also the mother-in-law of Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown.
Speaking to supporters before her race had been called, Crombie promised to stay on as Liberal leader and took a dig at Ford, who could score a smaller majority than last time around.
She also said returning the Liberals to official party status and beating the NDP in the popular vote — though not seat count — was a major achievement.
“I know tonight isn’t exactly the result we were looking for, but you should be very, very proud of what we did tonight,” she said. “People counted us out. They said the Ontario Liberal Party was dead. Tonight, you proved them wrong.”
Schreiner was the first leader of the night to speak, congratulating Ford on his win and conceding his party was unlikely to pick up a third seat.
“There are real and serious challenges facing the province of Ontario in climate, housing, health care, education and tariffs — you could put the word crisis after each and every one of those items,” he told supporters in Guelph.
“As a matter of fact, it feels like ‘crisis’ has become the new normal in Ontario. I know that Ontarians want us to do better, and I know that we can do better. And so I say to Mr. Ford, congratulations on a majority government, two Ontario Green MPPs, we will do our job to hold your government accountable. We will do it as the unofficial official opposition.”
Elsewhere Bobbi Ann Brady won re-election as an independent. She was the first independent to win in an Ontario general election, she grabbed her riding from the Progressive Conservatives in 2022.
The projected Progressive Conservative win means the party is set to pull off a historic feat of three consecutive majorities. In 2018, Ford won a comfortable majority with 76 seats after 15 years of Liberal government. He increased that majority in 2022 to 83 seats, largely at the expense of the NDP.
At dissolution, the PCs had 79 seats after a handful of resignations and removals from caucus. The NDP had 28, the Liberals were at nine and the Greens had two.
Ford suggested at the end of January he needed a larger mandate to fight against the threat of Donald Trump and proposed tariffs, potentially spending tens of billions of dollars to stimulate the provincial economy.
He framed the election campaign around the taglines “Protect Ontario” and “Canada Is Not For Sale,” saying only he could handle the turbulence a four-year Trump presidency looks set to bring.
His rivals tried to match his tariff talk and shift the focus of the campaign to health care, affordability and the PC leader’s record but they struggled to break through.
Very early unofficial turnout figures suggested around 45 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot — marginally higher than 2022’s record low turnout.